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Casey Nelson

#8 · Defence · Buffalo Sabres

Born Jul 18, 1992 in Wisconsin Rapids, Wisconsin, USA · 6'1", 185 lb · Shoots right

Compare with a similar player

The defencemen closest to him in points in 2018-19. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Carl Dahlstrom CHI · 6 P in 38 GP Fredrik Claesson NYR · 6 P in 37 GP Steven Kampfer BOS · 6 P in 35 GP Lawrence Pilut BUF · 6 P in 33 GP Christian Folin MTL · 6 P in 45 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

024682015-16: 4 points415-162016-17: 0 points016-172017-18: 8 points817-182018-19: 6 points618-19

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Cap hit
2015-16 BUF 7 0 4 4 1 8 5 5 0.57
2016-17 BUF 11 0 0 0 -3 4 10 15 0.00 $650K
2017-18 BUF 37 3 5 8 -14 8 48 31 0.22 $650K
2018-19 BUF 38 1 5 6 1 13 37 44 0.16 $813K
4 seasons Career 93 4 14 18 -15 33 100 95 0.19

2018-19 season totals

GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Shooting % Avg TOI
38 1 5 6 1 13 37 44 0.16 2.7 15:25

Contract

$813KCap hitends in 2020, then UFA
$135KCap dollars per point6 points in 38 games
$1.199MCap dollars per goal above replacement0.7 goals above replacement
$1.1MWorth at the going ratewhat teams paid for a season like his
+$277KValueworth minus cap hit; below zero is overpaid

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up. Value is coloured by where it ranks among the 696 ranked skaters whose contract is known. How value is worked out.

The contract

Who signed him to it, and when, are not on record. It runs through 2019-20, with 1 season left after this one, and he is then an unrestricted free agent.

Season Cap hit
2018-19 $813K
2019-20 $813K

Each season left on the contract. Only its cap hit and its end are known: how the pay is split by season, and any signing bonus, are not.

Contracts he has signed

Signed Signed by Kind Seasons Years In all Cap hit
2018-19 to 2019-20 $813K
2016-17 to 2017-18 $650K

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2018-19 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2018-19 analytics

Rating

+0.7Goals above replacement476th of 699 skaters, 153rd of 244 defencemen
+0.1Wins above replacementgoals above replacement divided by six
-1.3Goals above averagethe five parts below added up

Each number is coloured by where it ranks among the 244 ranked defencemen: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile.

Even-strength offence-1.6 35th percentileEven-strength defence+0.4 56th percentilePower play0.0 76th percentilePenalty kill+0.4 82nd percentilePenalties-0.4 58th percentile

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater, and the rank beside it is among defencemen. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance. Provisional: under 40 games it is more chance than player. Before 2023-24 the NHL timed events less exactly, and differently from rink to rink, so expected goals for this season are rougher than for recent ones.

-1.5-1-0.500.512015-162016-172017-182018-19Goals above replacementGoals above replacement, by season

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

52.4Corsi for %475 attempts for, 431 against
+2.3CF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
48.2Expected goals for %19.5 expected for, 20.9 against
-0.2xGF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
52.6Fenwick for %unblocked attempts
50.0Goals for %20 for, 20 against
99.4PDO7.8% shooting + 91.6% saves
81Attempts takenhis own shot attempts

Each share is coloured by where it ranks among the 591 skaters who played enough to be ranked: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile. PDO and attempts taken are left plain, since neither is good or bad on its own.

Who he played with

Defence pairGPTimeCF%xGF%Goals
Casey Nelson · Rasmus Dahlin32138:3256.452.34-7
Marco Scandella · Casey Nelson16129:4347.437.45-1
Nathan Beaulieu · Casey Nelson12108:1956.851.03-3
Casey Nelson · Lawrence Pilut771:1358.760.34-3

The pairs he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's pairs that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net. Before 2023-24 the NHL timed events less exactly, and differently from rink to rink, so expected goals for this season are rougher than for recent ones.

1Goalsnot counting empty-netters
1.1Expected goalsfrom 54 unblocked attempts
-0.1Goals above expectedgoals minus expected goals
Chances created 0.11 expected goals per 60 minutes10th
Shot quality 2.1% chance per attempt5th
Finishing -0.1 goals above expected55thOne season of finishing is mostly luck.

Each bar shows the share of defencemen he is ahead of, among the 244 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

00.51Game 20Expected 1.1Goals 1

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log

Date Opponent Result G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits TOI
Apr 6, 2019 @ DET W 7-1 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 18:43
Apr 4, 2019 vs OTT W 5-2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 15:32
Apr 2, 2019 vs NSH L 2-3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 16:59
Mar 31, 2019 vs CBJ L 0-4 0 0 0 -2 0 2 3 18:50
Mar 30, 2019 @ NYI L 1-5 0 0 0 -2 0 1 3 21:02
Mar 28, 2019 vs DET L 4-5 (OT) 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 16:39
Mar 26, 2019 @ OTT L 0-4 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 20:35
Mar 25, 2019 @ NJD L 1-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14:01
Mar 23, 2019 @ MTL L 4-7 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 16:41
Mar 20, 2019 vs TOR L 2-4 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 17:32
Mar 17, 2019 vs STL W 4-3 (SO) 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 16:38
Mar 16, 2019 @ CAR L 2-4 0 0 0 -2 5 1 1 11:06
Mar 14, 2019 vs PIT L 0-5 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 14:29
Mar 9, 2019 @ COL L 0-3 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 13:21
Mar 7, 2019 @ CHI L 4-5 (SO) 0 0 0 -1 2 1 0 14:19
Mar 4, 2019 vs EDM L 3-4 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 15:33
Dec 4, 2018 vs TOR L 3-4 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02:39
Dec 3, 2018 @ NSH L 1-2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 12:48
Nov 30, 2018 @ FLA L 2-3 (OT) 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 15:54
Nov 29, 2018 @ TBL L 4-5 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 15:38
Nov 27, 2018 vs SJS W 3-2 (OT) 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 14:33
Nov 24, 2018 @ DET W 3-2 (SO) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 15:19
Nov 21, 2018 vs PHI W 5-2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 12:56
Nov 19, 2018 @ PIT W 5-4 (OT) 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 15:18
Nov 17, 2018 @ MIN W 3-2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18:55
Nov 4, 2018 @ NYR L 1-3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 14:10
Nov 3, 2018 vs OTT W 9-2 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 18:46
Nov 1, 2018 @ OTT L 2-4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 12:28
Oct 30, 2018 vs CGY L 1-2 (OT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 14:27
Oct 27, 2018 @ CBJ L 4-5 (OT) 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 12:10
Oct 25, 2018 vs MTL W 4-3 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 12:03
Oct 21, 2018 @ ANA W 4-2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 14:22
Oct 20, 2018 @ LAK W 5-1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 20:49
Oct 13, 2018 @ ARI W 3-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15:39
Oct 11, 2018 vs COL L 1-6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13:59
Oct 8, 2018 vs VGK W 4-2 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 17:28
Oct 6, 2018 vs NYR W 3-1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 14:05
Oct 4, 2018 vs BOS L 0-4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 19:07