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Photo of Justin Danforth

Justin Danforth

#15 · Right wing · Buffalo Sabres

Born Mar 15, 1993 in Oshawa, Ontario, CAN (age 33) · 5'8", 193 lb · Shoots right

Compare with a similar player

The forwards closest to him in points in 2022-23. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Max Pacioretty CAR · 3 P in 5 GP Andrew Agozzino SJS · 3 P in 4 GP Josh Norris OTT · 3 P in 8 GP William Eklund SJS · 3 P in 8 GP Buddy Robinson CHI · 3 P in 9 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

010202021-22: 14 points1421-222022-23: 3 points322-232023-24: 26 points2623-242024-25: 21 points2124-252025-26: 0 points025-262026-27: 0 points026-27

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Cap hit
2021-22 CBJ 45 10 4 14 -5 10 72 85 0.31 $750K
2022-23 CBJ 6 2 1 3 -3 4 10 7 0.50 $975K
2023-24 CBJ 71 10 16 26 -10 26 86 109 0.37 $975K
2024-25 CBJ 61 9 12 21 -6 18 94 126 0.34 $1.1M
2025-26 BUF 4 0 0 0 -2 2 2 3 0.00 $1.8M
2026-27 BUF 3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0.00 $1.8M
6 seasons Career 190 31 33 64 -27 60 265 332 0.34

2022-23 season totals

GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Shooting % Avg TOI
6 2 1 3 -3 4 10 7 0.50 20.0 13:23

Contract

$975KCap hitends in 2024, then UFA
$325KCap dollars per point3 points in 6 games
$959KCap dollars per goal above replacement1.0 goals above replacement

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up.

The contract

Signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets on Mar 8, 2022, as an extension of the contract he was on: 2 years and $1.95M, beginning in 2022-23. It runs through 2023-24, with 1 season left after this one, and he is then an unrestricted free agent.

Season Cap hit Base salary Signing bonus Performance bonuses Paid in all Clause
2022-23 $975K $975K $0 $975K
2023-24 $975K $975K $0 $975K

Each season of the contract, with this one marked. The cap hit is the same every year; what he is paid is not. The pay is as written when the contract was recorded in October 2024, so a later change, such as the rise in the lowest salary for 2026-27, is not shown.

Contracts he has signed

Signed Signed by Kind Seasons Years In all Cap hit
Jul 1, 2025 Buffalo Sabres New contract 2025-26 to 2026-27 2 $3.6M $1.8M
Oct 11, 2023 Columbus Blue Jackets Extension 2024-25 to 2024-25 1 $1.1M $1.1M
Mar 8, 2022 Columbus Blue Jackets Extension 2022-23 to 2023-24 2 $1.95M $975K
May 3, 2021 Columbus Blue Jackets New contract 2021-22 to 2021-22 1 $750K $750K

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2022-23 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2022-23 analytics

Rating

+1.0Goals above replacementsix goals are worth about one win
+0.2Wins above replacementgoals above replacement divided by six
+0.8Goals above averagethe five parts below added up
Even-strength offence+0.8Even-strength defence+0.1Power play-0.1Penalty kill+0.1Penalties+0.0

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance. He has played fewer than 20 games, too few to be ranked. Before 2023-24 the NHL timed events less exactly, and differently from rink to rink, so expected goals for this season are rougher than for recent ones.

-202462021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-27Goals above replacementGoals above replacement, by season

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

49.6Corsi for %67 attempts for, 68 against
+5.3CF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
56.7Expected goals for %3.4 expected for, 2.6 against
+15.1xGF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
48.5Fenwick for %unblocked attempts
40.0Goals for %4 for, 6 against
92.4PDO11.1% shooting + 81.3% saves
15Attempts takenhis own shot attempts

These are left plain: he has not been on the ice enough to be ranked. That takes at least 200 shot attempts with him out there, about six or seven games, and a quarter of what the busiest skater has. Over a game or two these numbers are mostly chance.

Who he played with

Forward lineGPTimeCF%xGF%Goals
Justin Danforth · Egor Chinakhov · Cole Sillinger315:1256.382.32-1
Johnny Gaudreau · Boone Jenner · Justin Danforth314:5045.846.41-0
Jack Roslovic · Justin Danforth · Kent Johnson212:4780.095.80-0
Gustav Nyquist · Justin Danforth · Cole Sillinger17:1160.988.00-1

The lines he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's lines that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net. Before 2023-24 the NHL timed events less exactly, and differently from rink to rink, so expected goals for this season are rougher than for recent ones.

2Goalsnot counting empty-netters
1.9Expected goalsfrom 17 unblocked attempts
+0.1Goals above expectedgoals minus expected goals
Chances created 1.45 expected goals per 60 minutes99th
Shot quality 11.4% chance per attempt99th
Finishing +0.1 goals above expected57thOne season of finishing is mostly luck.

Each bar shows the share of forwards he is ahead of, among the 446 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

00.511.52Goals 2Expected 1.9

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log

Date Opponent Result G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits TOI
Oct 22, 2022 vs PIT L 3-6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 04:46
Oct 20, 2022 vs NSH W 5-3 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 12:37
Oct 18, 2022 vs VAN W 4-3 (OT) 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 12:48
Oct 15, 2022 @ STL L 2-5 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 13:00
Oct 14, 2022 vs TBL L 2-5 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 20:23
Oct 12, 2022 @ CAR L 1-4 0 0 0 -3 2 5 2 16:46