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Photo of Justin Danforth

Justin Danforth

#15 · Right wing · Buffalo Sabres

Born Mar 15, 1993 in Oshawa, Ontario, CAN (age 33) · 5'8", 193 lb · Shoots right

Compare with a similar player

The forwards closest to him in points in 2024-25. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Garnet Hathaway PHI · 21 P in 67 GP Erik Haula NJD · 21 P in 69 GP Colton Sissons NSH · 21 P in 72 GP Michael Rasmussen DET · 21 P in 77 GP Logan O'Connor COL · 21 P in 80 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

010202021-22: 14 points1421-222022-23: 3 points322-232023-24: 26 points2623-242024-25: 21 points2124-252025-26: 0 points025-262026-27: 0 points026-27

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Cap hit
2021-22 CBJ 45 10 4 14 -5 10 72 85 0.31 $750K
2022-23 CBJ 6 2 1 3 -3 4 10 7 0.50 $975K
2023-24 CBJ 71 10 16 26 -10 26 86 109 0.37 $975K
2024-25 CBJ 61 9 12 21 -6 18 94 126 0.34 $1.1M
2025-26 BUF 4 0 0 0 -2 2 2 3 0.00 $1.8M
2026-27 BUF 3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0.00 $1.8M
6 seasons Career 190 31 33 64 -27 60 265 332 0.34

2024-25 season totals

GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Shooting % Avg TOI
61 9 12 21 -6 18 94 126 0.34 9.6 14:23

Contract

$1.1MCap hitends in 2025, then UFA
$52KCap dollars per point21 points in 61 games
$782KCap dollars per goal above replacement1.4 goals above replacement
$1.9MWorth at the going ratewhat teams paid for a season like his
+$759KValueworth minus cap hit; below zero is overpaid

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up. Value is coloured by where it ranks among the 698 ranked skaters whose contract is known. How value is worked out.

The contract

Signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets on Oct 11, 2023, as an extension of the contract he was on: 1 year and $1.1M, beginning in 2024-25. It runs through 2024-25, so this is its last season, after which he is an unrestricted free agent.

Season Cap hit Base salary Signing bonus Performance bonuses Paid in all Clause
2024-25 $1.1M $1.1M $0 $1.1M

Each season of the contract, with this one marked. The cap hit is the same every year; what he is paid is not. The pay is as written when the contract was recorded in October 2024, so a later change, such as the rise in the lowest salary for 2026-27, is not shown.

Contracts he has signed

Signed Signed by Kind Seasons Years In all Cap hit
Jul 1, 2025 Buffalo Sabres New contract 2025-26 to 2026-27 2 $3.6M $1.8M
Oct 11, 2023 Columbus Blue Jackets Extension 2024-25 to 2024-25 1 $1.1M $1.1M
Mar 8, 2022 Columbus Blue Jackets Extension 2022-23 to 2023-24 2 $1.95M $975K
May 3, 2021 Columbus Blue Jackets New contract 2021-22 to 2021-22 1 $750K $750K

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2024-25 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2024-25 analytics

Rating

+1.4Goals above replacement427th of 698 skaters, 284th of 456 forwards
+0.2Wins above replacementgoals above replacement divided by six
-1.0Goals above averagethe five parts below added up

Each number is coloured by where it ranks among the 456 ranked forwards: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile.

Even-strength offence-0.7 43rd percentileEven-strength defence+1.1 70th percentilePower play+0.0 66th percentilePenalty kill-0.6 5th percentilePenalties-0.9 10th percentile

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater, and the rank beside it is among forwards. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance.

-202462021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-27Goals above replacementGoals above replacement, by season

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

47.7Corsi for %670 attempts for, 736 against
-2.5CF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
47.9Expected goals for %27.1 expected for, 29.5 against
+0.1xGF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
47.6Fenwick for %unblocked attempts
44.8Goals for %26 for, 32 against
99.0PDO8.3% shooting + 90.7% saves
125Attempts takenhis own shot attempts

Each share is coloured by where it ranks among the 598 skaters who played enough to be ranked: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile. PDO and attempts taken are left plain, since neither is good or bad on its own.

Who he played with

Forward lineGPTimeCF%xGF%Goals
Mathieu Olivier · Justin Danforth · Zachary Aston-Reese38283:3946.953.413-9
Sean Kuraly · Justin Danforth · Zachary Aston-Reese1584:3452.951.52-1
Mathieu Olivier · Justin Danforth · Mikael Pyyhtia845:1056.351.60-6
Mathieu Olivier · Justin Danforth · Cole Sillinger1041:5055.346.73-3

The lines he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's lines that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net.

8Goalsnot counting empty-netters
10.3Expected goalsfrom 122 unblocked attempts
-2.3Goals above expectedgoals minus expected goals
Chances created 0.70 expected goals per 60 minutes41st
Shot quality 8.4% chance per attempt70th
Finishing -2.3 goals above expected26thOne season of finishing is mostly luck.

Each bar shows the share of forwards he is ahead of, among the 428 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

0510Game 20Game 40Game 60Expected 10.3Goals 8

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log

Date Opponent Result G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits TOI
Apr 17, 2025 vs NYI W 6-1 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 12:51
Apr 15, 2025 @ PHI W 3-0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 12:05
Apr 13, 2025 @ WSH W 4-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13:15
Apr 12, 2025 vs WSH W 7-0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 15:09
Apr 10, 2025 vs BUF W 3-2 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 13:19
Apr 8, 2025 vs OTT W 5-2 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 13:17
Apr 6, 2025 @ OTT L 0-4 0 0 0 -1 2 1 4 13:00
Apr 5, 2025 @ TOR L 0-5 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 12:01
Apr 3, 2025 vs COL L 3-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 10:58
Apr 1, 2025 vs NSH W 8-4 0 0 0 -2 0 2 2 13:40
Mar 29, 2025 @ OTT L 2-3 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 15:17
Mar 28, 2025 vs VAN W 7-6 (SO) 0 1 1 1 0 2 3 13:39
Mar 24, 2025 @ NYI W 4-3 (SO) 0 0 0 -1 2 1 1 15:49
Mar 21, 2025 @ PIT L 3-6 1 0 1 -1 0 3 0 12:51
Mar 20, 2025 vs FLA L 0-1 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 16:47
Mar 17, 2025 vs NJD L 1-2 0 1 1 1 0 3 1 11:52
Mar 15, 2025 vs NYR L 0-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13:50
Mar 13, 2025 vs VGK L 0-4 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 12:19
Mar 11, 2025 @ NJD L 3-5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13:43
Mar 9, 2025 @ NYR W 7-3 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 16:05
Mar 6, 2025 @ FLA L 0-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13:30
Mar 4, 2025 @ TBL L 2-6 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 15:01
Mar 1, 2025 vs DET W 5-3 1 1 2 2 0 3 6 14:22
Feb 27, 2025 @ DET W 5-2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 14:03
Feb 25, 2025 vs DAL W 6-4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 13:54
Feb 22, 2025 vs CHI W 5-1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 14:10
Feb 8, 2025 vs NYR L 3-4 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 17:43
Feb 6, 2025 vs UTA L 2-3 (OT) 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 17:33
Feb 4, 2025 @ BUF L 2-3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 12:59
Feb 2, 2025 @ DAL L 3-5 0 1 1 1 0 0 5 14:09
Jan 31, 2025 @ UTA W 3-2 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 11:59
Jan 30, 2025 @ VGK W 2-1 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 12:18
Jan 25, 2025 vs LAK W 3-2 (OT) 0 1 1 -1 0 3 4 16:46
Jan 23, 2025 @ CAR L 4-7 0 0 0 -1 0 1 3 13:35
Jan 22, 2025 @ TOR W 5-1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 12:41
Jan 20, 2025 @ NYI L 1-3 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 07:26
Dec 10, 2024 vs PHI L 3-5 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 09:38
Dec 8, 2024 @ WPG W 4-1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 11:54
Dec 6, 2024 @ VAN L 2-5 0 0 0 -1 0 3 2 12:46
Dec 5, 2024 @ EDM L 3-6 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 14:43
Dec 3, 2024 @ CGY L 0-3 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 13:50
Dec 1, 2024 @ CHI W 6-3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 15:23
Nov 29, 2024 vs CGY W 5-2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 16:34
Nov 27, 2024 vs MTL L 3-4 (OT) 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 17:37
Nov 23, 2024 vs CAR W 5-4 (SO) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 15:09
Nov 21, 2024 vs TBL W 7-6 (OT) 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 15:18
Nov 18, 2024 @ BOS W 5-1 1 0 1 1 0 1 3 16:31
Nov 16, 2024 @ MTL L 1-5 0 0 0 -2 0 1 3 14:53
Nov 15, 2024 vs PIT W 6-2 0 1 1 2 0 5 1 18:52
Nov 12, 2024 @ SEA L 2-5 0 0 0 -3 0 5 0 14:28
Nov 10, 2024 @ ANA L 2-4 0 0 0 -1 2 2 2 13:10
Nov 9, 2024 @ LAK L 2-5 0 2 2 1 0 2 3 17:37
Nov 5, 2024 @ SJS L 1-2 (OT) 0 0 0 -1 0 6 0 17:15
Nov 2, 2024 @ WSH L 2-7 0 0 0 -2 0 1 4 13:49
Nov 1, 2024 vs WPG L 2-6 0 0 0 -3 0 2 3 15:46
Oct 30, 2024 vs NYI W 2-0 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 16:39
Oct 28, 2024 vs EDM W 6-1 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 17:17
Oct 26, 2024 @ NSH L 3-4 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 16:08
Oct 22, 2024 vs TOR W 6-2 1 2 3 1 0 2 1 15:23
Oct 19, 2024 vs MIN L 1-3 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 16:13
Oct 17, 2024 vs BUF W 6-4 0 0 0 -1 0 2 4 16:38