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Dylan Duke

#53 · Left wing · Tampa Bay Lightning

Born Mar 4, 2003 in Strongsville, Ohio, USA (age 23) · 5'10", 183 lb · Shoots left · Drafted 126th overall in 2021 by TBL (round 4)

Compare with a similar player

The forwards closest to him in points in 2024-25. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Bradly Nadeau CAR · 1 P in 2 GP Mike Hardman NJD · 1 P in 2 GP Skyler Brind'Amour CAR · 1 P in 2 GP Andrew Poturalski SJS · 1 P in 3 GP John Farinacci BOS · 1 P in 1 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

00.20.40.60.812024-25: 1 points124-252025-26: 0 points025-26

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Cap hit
2024-25 TBL 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 5 0.50 $868K
2025-26 TBL 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0.00 $868K
2 seasons Career 3 1 0 1 -1 0 2 5 0.33

2024-25 season totals

GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Shooting % Avg TOI
2 1 0 1 0 0 1 5 0.50 100.0 7:52

Contract

$868KCap hitends in 2027, then RFA
$868KCap dollars per point1 points in 2 games
$10.592MCap dollars per goal above replacement0.1 goals above replacement

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up.

The contract

Signed by the Tampa Bay Lightning on Apr 15, 2024, as an entry-level contract: 3 years and $2.775M, beginning in 2024-25. It runs through 2026-27, with 2 seasons left after this one, and he is then a restricted free agent.

Season Cap hit Base salary Signing bonus Performance bonuses Paid in all Clause
2024-25 $868K $775K $93K $58K $868K
2025-26 $868K $775K $93K $58K $868K
2026-27 $943K $775K $93K $58K $868K

Each season of the contract, with this one marked. The cap hit is the same every year; what he is paid is not. The pay is as written when the contract was recorded in October 2024, so a later change, such as the rise in the lowest salary for 2026-27, is not shown.

Contracts he has signed

Signed Signed by Kind Seasons Years In all Cap hit
Apr 15, 2024 Tampa Bay Lightning Entry-level 2024-25 to 2026-27 3 $2.775M $868K

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2024-25 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2024-25 analytics

Rating

+0.1Goals above replacementsix goals are worth about one win
+0.0Wins above replacementgoals above replacement divided by six
+0.0Goals above averagethe five parts below added up
Even-strength offence+0.0Even-strength defence+0.0Power play0.0Penalty kill0.0Penalties+0.0

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance. He has played fewer than 20 games, too few to be ranked.

-0.500.512024-252025-26Goals above replacementGoals above replacement, by season

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

33.3Corsi for %7 attempts for, 14 against
-5.5CF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
29.6Expected goals for %0.3 expected for, 0.7 against
-8.7xGF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
20.0Fenwick for %unblocked attempts
50.0Goals for %1 for, 1 against
122.2PDO33.3% shooting + 88.9% saves
1Attempts takenhis own shot attempts

These are left plain: he has not been on the ice enough to be ranked. That takes at least 200 shot attempts with him out there, about six or seven games, and a quarter of what the busiest skater has. Over a game or two these numbers are mostly chance.

Who he played with

Forward lineGPTimeCF%xGF%Goals
Luke Glendening · Mitchell Chaffee · Dylan Duke212:5129.431.31-1
Zemgus Girgensons · Mitchell Chaffee · Dylan Duke10:35100.00.00-0
Brayden Point · Brandon Hagel · Dylan Duke10:350.00.00-0
Cam Atkinson · Luke Glendening · Dylan Duke10:270.00.00-0

The lines he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's lines that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net.

1Goalsnot counting empty-netters
0.2Expected goalsfrom 1 unblocked attempts
+0.8Goals above expectedgoals minus expected goals
Chances created 0.80 expected goals per 60 minutes59th
Shot quality 21.0% chance per attempt99th
Finishing +0.8 goals above expected61stOne season of finishing is mostly luck.

Each bar shows the share of forwards he is ahead of, among the 428 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

00.20.40.60.81Goals 1Expected 0.2

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log

Date Opponent Result G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits TOI
Feb 9, 2025 @ MTL W 5-3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 08:05
Feb 8, 2025 @ DET W 6-3 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 07:38