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Noah Ostlund

#86 · Centre · Buffalo Sabres

Born Mar 11, 2004 in Stockholm, SWE (age 22) · 5'11", 182 lb · Shoots left · Drafted 16th overall in 2022 by BUF (round 1)

Compare with a similar player

The forwards closest to him in points in 2026-27. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Adam Lowry WPG · 3 P in 4 GP Alexander Kerfoot NSH · 3 P in 4 GP Blake Coleman MIN · 3 P in 4 GP Bobby Brink MIN · 3 P in 4 GP Brayden Point TBL · 3 P in 4 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Playoffs

Playoff games only. Pick a season to see that year's bracket.

2026-27 season totals

Contract

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up. The season is still being played, so each rating is projected over the whole season: the games played so far, plus the games left at the rate of the last three seasons and this one. Value is coloured by where it ranks among the 648 ranked skaters whose contract is known. How value is worked out.

The contract

Signed by the Buffalo Sabres on Jul 15, 2022, as an entry-level contract: 3 years and $4.275M, beginning in 2024-25. It runs through 2026-27, so this is its last season, and his extension takes over. His next contract is already signed: an extension with the Buffalo Sabres on Sep 14, 2026, 8 years and $52.8M at $6.6M a season, beginning in 2027-28.

Each season of the contract, with this one marked. The cap hit is the same every year; what he is paid is not. The pay is as written when the contract was recorded in October 2024, so a later change, such as the rise in the lowest salary for 2026-27, is not shown.

Contracts he has signed

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2026-27 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2026-27 analytics

Rating, projected over the full season

2026-27 is still being played, so these are a projection of his whole season, not a count so far: what he has done in 4 games (+0.5 goals above replacement), plus the 42 more he is taken to play, going by how much of his team's games he has played before, at a rate set by his last three seasons and this one. The more he plays, the more this season counts, and by the last game it is simply his season.

Each number is coloured by where it ranks among the 423 ranked forwards: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile.

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater, and the rank beside it is among forwards. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance.

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

These are left plain: he has not been on the ice enough to be ranked. That takes at least 200 shot attempts with him out there, about six or seven games, and a quarter of what the busiest skater has. Over a game or two these numbers are mostly chance.

Who he played with

The lines he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's lines that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net.

Each bar shows the share of forwards he is ahead of, among the 0 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log