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Leo Carlsson

#91 · Centre · Anaheim Ducks

Born Dec 26, 2004 in Karlstad, SWE (age 21) · 6'3", 215 lb · Shoots left · Drafted 2nd overall in 2023 by ANA (round 1)

Compare with a similar player

The forwards closest to him in points in 2026-27. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Clayton Keller UTA · 7 P in 4 GP Kyle Connor WPG · 7 P in 4 GP Nick Schmaltz UTA · 7 P in 4 GP Sebastian Aho CAR · 7 P in 4 GP Nick Suzuki MTL · 6 P in 3 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

02040602023-24: 29 points2923-242024-25: 45 points4524-252025-26: 67 points6725-262026-27: 7 points726-27

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Cap hit
2023-24 ANA 55 12 17 29 -11 16 109 28 0.53 $950K
2024-25 ANA 76 20 25 45 6 14 114 24 0.59 $950K
2025-26 ANA 70 29 38 67 4 33 193 14 0.96 $950K
2026-27 ANA 3 1 6 7 -2 2 2 0 2.33 $18M
4 seasons Career 204 62 86 148 -3 65 418 66 0.73

Playoffs

Playoff games only. Pick a season to see that year's bracket.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP
2025-26 ANA 12 4 7 11 1 0 41 9 0.92
1 season Playoffs 12 4 7 11 1 0 41 9 0.92

2026-27 season totals

GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Shooting % Avg TOI
3 1 6 7 -2 2 2 0 2.33 50.0 20:35

Contract

$18MCap hitends in 2031, then UFA
$2.571MCap dollars per point7 points in 3 games
$1.954MCap dollars per goal above replacement9.2 goals above replacement, projected
$9.6MWorth at the going ratewhat teams paid for a season like his
-$8.4MValueworth less cap hit

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up. The season is still being played, so each rating is projected over all of it: what the player has done so far, plus the games left at a rate taken from his last three seasons and this one. Value is coloured by where it ranks among the 647 ranked skaters whose contract is known. How value is worked out.

The contract

Signed by the Philadelphia Flyers on Jul 3, 2026, as a new contract: 5 years and $90M, beginning in 2026-27. It runs through 2030-31, with 4 seasons left after this one, and he is then an unrestricted free agent.

Season Cap hit
2026-27 $18M
2027-28 $18M
2028-29 $18M
2029-30 $18M
2030-31 $18M

Each season left on the contract. Only its cap hit and its end are known: how the pay is split by season, and any signing bonus, are not.

Contracts he has signed

Signed Signed by Kind Seasons Years In all Cap hit
Jul 3, 2026 Philadelphia Flyers New contract 2026-27 to 2030-31 5 $90M $18M
Jul 12, 2023 Anaheim Ducks Entry-level 2023-24 to 2025-26 3 $12.6M $950K

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2026-27 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2026-27 analytics

Rating, projected over the full season

2026-27 is still being played, so these are a projection of his whole season, not a count so far: what he has done in 3 games (+1.1 goals above replacement), plus the 69 more he is taken to play, going by how much of his team's games he has played before, at a rate set by his last three seasons and this one. The more he plays, the more this season counts, and by the last game it is simply his season.

+9.2Goals above replacement80th of 647 skaters, 64th of 422 forwards
+1.5Wins above replacementgoals above replacement divided by six
+5.5Goals above averagethe five parts below added up

Each number is coloured by where it ranks among the 422 ranked forwards: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile.

Even-strength offence+3.7 83rd percentileEven-strength defence-1.4 21st percentilePower play+0.7 83rd percentilePenalty kill+0.2 81st percentilePenalties+2.4 98th percentile

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater, and the rank beside it is among forwards. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance.

0510152023-242024-252025-262026-27Goals above replacementGoals above replacement, by season

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

56.7Corsi for %51 attempts for, 39 against
+12.0CF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
49.5Expected goals for %2.5 expected for, 2.6 against
+4.9xGF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
57.1Fenwick for %unblocked attempts
40.0Goals for %2 for, 3 against
91.4PDO9.1% shooting + 82.4% saves
5Attempts takenhis own shot attempts

These are left plain: he has not been on the ice enough to be ranked. That takes at least 200 shot attempts with him out there, about six or seven games, and a quarter of what the busiest skater has. Over a game or two these numbers are mostly chance.

Who he played with

Forward lineGPTimeCF%xGF%Goals
A.J. Greer · Cutter Gauthier · Leo Carlsson323:4454.144.51-2
Cutter Gauthier · Leo Carlsson · Beckett Sennecke38:2863.649.91-1
Nikita Nesterenko · Cutter Gauthier · Leo Carlsson11:34100.0100.00-0
Nikita Nesterenko · Sam Colangelo · Leo Carlsson10:580.00.00-0

The lines he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's lines that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net.

1Goalsnot counting empty-netters
0.5Expected goalsfrom 5 unblocked attempts
+0.5Goals above expectedgoals minus expected goals
Chances created 0.53 expected goals per 60 minutes1st
Shot quality 11.0% chance per attempt1st
Finishing +0.5 goals above expected1stOne season of finishing is mostly luck.

Each bar shows the share of forwards he is ahead of, among the 0 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

00.20.40.60.81Goals 1Expected 0.5

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log

Date Opponent Result G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits TOI
Oct 7, 2026 vs EDM L 2-5 0 2 2 -2 2 0 0 23:36
Oct 4, 2026 vs FLA W 3-2 (OT) 0 3 3 -1 0 1 0 20:26
Oct 2, 2026 @ VGK W 4-3 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 17:43