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John Carlson

#74 · Defence · Tampa Bay Lightning

Born Jan 10, 1990 in Natick, Massachusetts, USA (age 36) · 6'3", 225 lb · Shoots right · Drafted 27th overall in 2008 by WSH (round 1)

Trophy case

Stanley Cup NHL Champion 2017-18

Compare with a similar player

The defencemen closest to him in points in 2026-27. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Alexandre Carrier MTL · 2 P in 3 GP Brandt Clarke LAK · 2 P in 3 GP Brent Burns COL · 2 P in 3 GP Cole Hutson WSH · 2 P in 3 GP Devon Toews COL · 2 P in 3 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Playoffs

Playoff games only. Pick a season to see that year's bracket.

2026-27 season totals

Contract

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up. The season is still being played, so each rating is projected over all of it: what the player has done so far, plus the games left at a rate taken from his last three seasons and this one. Value is coloured by where it ranks among the 647 ranked skaters whose contract is known. How value is worked out.

The contract

Signed by the Tampa Bay Lightning on Jul 1, 2026, as a new contract: 2 years and $17M, beginning in 2026-27. It runs through 2027-28, with 1 season left after this one, and he is then an unrestricted free agent.

Each season left on the contract. Only its cap hit and its end are known: how the pay is split by season, and any signing bonus, are not.

Contracts he has signed

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2026-27 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2026-27 analytics

Rating, projected over the full season

2026-27 is still being played, so these are a projection of his whole season, not a count so far: what he has done in 3 games (-0.1 goals above replacement), plus the 75 more he is taken to play, going by how much of his team's games he has played before, at a rate set by his last three seasons and this one. The more he plays, the more this season counts, and by the last game it is simply his season.

Each number is coloured by where it ranks among the 225 ranked defencemen: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile.

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater, and the rank beside it is among defencemen. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance.

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

These are left plain: he has not been on the ice enough to be ranked. That takes at least 200 shot attempts with him out there, about six or seven games, and a quarter of what the busiest skater has. Over a game or two these numbers are mostly chance.

Who he played with

The pairs he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's pairs that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net.

Each bar shows the share of defencemen he is ahead of, among the 0 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log