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Justin Bailey

#90 · Right wing · San Jose Sharks

Born Jul 1, 1995 in Buffalo, New York, USA · 6'4", 214 lb · Shoots right · Drafted 52nd overall in 2013 by BUF (round 2)

Compare with a similar player

The forwards closest to him in points in 2016-17. Pick one to see the two side by side, or choose someone else.

Curtis Lazar CGY · 4 P in 37 GP Gabriel Dumont TBL · 4 P in 39 GP Ben Smith TOR · 4 P in 40 GP Harry Zolnierczyk NSH · 4 P in 24 GP Anton Lander EDM · 4 P in 22 GP

Career

Regular season games only. Pick a season to see its game log below. Cap hit is what he counted against the salary cap that season, where it is known.

05102015-16: 0 points015-162016-17: 4 points416-172017-18: 4 points417-182018-19: 1 points118-192019-20: 0 points019-202020-21: 0 points020-212021-22: 0 points021-222023-24: 14 points1423-24

Points by season. The darker bar is the season shown below.

Season Team GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Cap hit
2015-16 BUF 8 0 0 0 -2 2 22 8 0.00 $670K
2016-17 BUF 32 2 2 4 0 4 36 27 0.13 $670K
2017-18 BUF 12 3 1 4 -2 2 19 19 0.33 $670K
2018-19 PHI 11 0 1 1 0 2 5 9 0.09 $715K
2019-20 VAN 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0.00 $750K
2020-21 VAN 3 0 0 0 -2 2 6 2 0.00 $750K
2021-22 VAN 14 0 0 0 -5 6 16 12 0.00 $750K
2023-24 SJS 59 5 9 14 -15 6 70 76 0.24 $775K
8 seasons Career 141 10 13 23 -26 24 175 157 0.16

2016-17 season totals

GP G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits P/GP Shooting % Avg TOI
32 2 2 4 0 4 36 27 0.13 5.6 10:38

Contract

$670KCap hitends in 2018, then RFA
$168KCap dollars per point4 points in 32 games
$201KWorth at the going ratewhat teams paid for a season like his
-$469KValueworth minus cap hit; below zero is overpaid

His cap hit for the whole season, set against what he did in the regular season. Lower is better value. In a season still being played the cost per point starts high and falls as the games add up. He rated at or below a spare-part player, so there is no cost per goal to show. Value is coloured by where it ranks among the 664 ranked skaters whose contract is known. How value is worked out.

The contract

Signed by the Buffalo Sabres on Nov 2, 2014, as an entry-level contract: 3 years and $2.683M, beginning in 2015-16. It runs through 2017-18, with 1 season left after this one, and he is then a restricted free agent.

Season Cap hit Base salary Signing bonus Performance bonuses Paid in all Clause
2015-16 $670K $575K $93K $258K $668K
2016-17 $670K $600K $93K $233K $693K
2017-18 $670K $650K $0 $183K $650K

Each season of the contract, with this one marked. The cap hit is the same every year; what he is paid is not. The pay is as written when the contract was recorded in October 2024, so a later change, such as the rise in the lowest salary for 2026-27, is not shown.

Contracts he has signed

Signed Signed by Kind Seasons Years In all Cap hit
Jun 30, 2024 San Jose Sharks Extension 2024-25 to 2024-25 1 $775K $775K
Nov 27, 2023 San Jose Sharks New contract 2023-24 to 2023-24 1 $775K $775K
Jan 6, 2023 Edmonton Oilers New contract 2022-23 to 2022-23 1 $750K $750K
Jul 28, 2021 Vancouver Canucks New contract 2021-22 to 2021-22 1 $750K $750K
Dec 17, 2020 Vancouver Canucks New contract 2020-21 to 2020-21 1 $750K $750K
Jul 4, 2019 Vancouver Canucks New contract 2019-20 to 2019-20 1 $750K $750K
Jul 15, 2018 Buffalo Sabres New contract 2018-19 to 2018-19 1 $715K $715K
Nov 2, 2014 Buffalo Sabres Entry-level 2015-16 to 2017-18 signed for 2014-15, slid 3 $2.683M $670K

Every contract on record for him, newest first, with the team that signed him to it and the day it was signed. The one covering 2016-17 is marked. An extension is signed while the contract before it is still running, often a year ahead. A row with no team or date is a contract known only by its cap hit, most often one signed since October 2024.

2016-17 analytics

Rating

-0.6Goals above replacement533rd of 664 skaters, 362nd of 435 forwards
-0.1Wins above replacementgoals above replacement divided by six
-1.5Goals above averagethe five parts below added up

Each number is coloured by where it ranks among the 435 ranked forwards: green is in the top fifth and red the bottom fifth, with paler shades in between and amber for the middle. Hover over a tile for its percentile.

Even-strength offence-1.9 23rd percentileEven-strength defence-0.9 28th percentilePower play0.0 65th percentilePenalty kill+0.0 46th percentilePenalties+1.2 77th percentile

The goals he added to his team's goal difference, compared with a spare-part player given the same ice time. Each part is measured against the league, so zero is an average skater, and the rank beside it is among forwards. A full season is about two-thirds the player and one-third chance. Provisional: under 40 games it is more chance than player. Before 2023-24 the NHL timed events less exactly, and differently from rink to rink, so expected goals for this season are rougher than for recent ones.

-2-101232015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222023-24Goals above replacementGoals above replacement, by season

On the ice

What happened at five-on-five while he was on the ice. What these numbers mean

43.1Corsi for %278 attempts for, 367 against
-3.8CF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
39.7Expected goals for %10.1 expected for, 15.4 against
-7.6xGF% relative to teamagainst the team without him
43.5Fenwick for %unblocked attempts
52.4Goals for %11 for, 10 against
102.5PDO7.3% shooting + 95.2% saves
73Attempts takenhis own shot attempts

These are left plain: he has not been on the ice enough to be ranked. That takes at least 200 shot attempts with him out there, about six or seven games, and a quarter of what the busiest skater has. Over a game or two these numbers are mostly chance.

Who he played with

Forward lineGPTimeCF%xGF%Goals
Kyle Okposo · Ryan O'Reilly · Justin Bailey1296:4642.736.74-2
Evander Kane · Justin Bailey · Sam Reinhart740:1042.450.21-1
Marcus Foligno · Zemgus Girgensons · Justin Bailey1023:2845.237.61-2
Matt Moulson · Justin Bailey · Sam Reinhart517:3160.760.10-0

The lines he spent the most time in at five-on-five, with the team's share of the shot attempts and expected goals, and the goals for and against, while they were out. The two shares are coloured as above, against the league's lines that played a fair amount together. Hover over one for its percentile.

Chances and finishing

Expected goals adds up how likely each of his shots was to go in, judged by where it came from, what kind of shot it was and whether it was a rebound. All situations, leaving out shots at an empty net. Before 2023-24 the NHL timed events less exactly, and differently from rink to rink, so expected goals for this season are rougher than for recent ones.

2Goalsnot counting empty-netters
2.5Expected goalsfrom 49 unblocked attempts
-0.5Goals above expectedgoals minus expected goals
Chances created 0.44 expected goals per 60 minutes7th
Shot quality 5.0% chance per attempt1st
Finishing -0.5 goals above expected49thOne season of finishing is mostly luck.

Each bar shows the share of forwards he is ahead of, among the 421 who played 300 minutes or more this season.

00.511.52Game 20Expected 2.5Goals 2

His goals and his expected goals as the season went on. When the goals line pulls away above, he is scoring more than his chances were worth; below, less.

Where he shot from

Every attempt he took this season, in all situations, attacking the net on the right. There is a dot for each attempt, bigger for a better chance. "Show as heat map" shades the ice by where the attempts came from. Click a goal for its details.

Game log

Date Opponent Result G A P +/- PIM Shots Hits TOI
Mar 21, 2017 vs PIT L 1-3 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 10:04
Mar 20, 2017 @ DET W 2-1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 08:18
Mar 17, 2017 @ ANA W 2-1 (SO) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 09:04
Mar 14, 2017 @ SJS L 1-4 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 13:50
Mar 11, 2017 vs CBJ W 5-3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 07:21
Mar 10, 2017 @ CBJ L 3-4 0 0 0 -2 0 2 1 11:19
Mar 7, 2017 vs PHI L 3-6 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 10:26
Mar 5, 2017 @ PIT L 3-4 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 07:47
Mar 4, 2017 vs TBL L 1-2 (SO) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 07:11
Mar 2, 2017 vs ARI W 6-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 08:47
Feb 28, 2017 vs NSH L 4-5 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 10:16
Feb 26, 2017 @ ARI L 2-3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 14:46
Feb 25, 2017 @ COL L 3-5 0 1 1 1 2 4 0 13:09
Feb 19, 2017 vs CHI L 1-5 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 13:44
Feb 18, 2017 vs STL W 3-2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 11:49
Feb 16, 2017 vs COL W 2-0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 17:14
Feb 14, 2017 @ OTT W 3-2 1 0 1 1 0 4 1 14:02
Feb 12, 2017 vs VAN L 2-4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 10:42
Feb 11, 2017 @ TOR W 3-1 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 13:58
Feb 9, 2017 vs ANA L 2-5 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 10:41
Feb 7, 2017 vs SJS W 5-4 (OT) 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 12:25
Feb 6, 2017 @ NJD L 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 06:52
Feb 4, 2017 vs OTT W 4-0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 09:24
Jan 13, 2017 @ CAR L 2-5 0 0 0 -1 0 4 1 06:53
Jan 12, 2017 @ TBL L 2-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 08:02
Jan 10, 2017 vs PHI W 4-1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 09:51
Jan 7, 2017 vs WPG W 4-3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 10:25
Jan 5, 2017 @ CHI L 3-4 (OT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 13:01
Jan 3, 2017 @ NYR W 4-1 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 10:29
Dec 31, 2016 @ BOS L 1-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 12:56
Nov 3, 2016 vs TOR L 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 07:02
Nov 1, 2016 @ MIN W 2-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 08:26